Date: 24.02.2015

The following is the opinion of Sergio Bianchi and not that of Agenfor Media.

The counting of the votes in Libya is still going on but the political future of the country is becoming ever more complex hour by hour, day by day.

Immediately after the count of the first districts was in, Jibril’s Alliance was making triumphant statements and asking all the parties to join a national coalition.

The first polls from Tripolitania showed that the Tahaluf (Alliance) had registered a stunning victory, just as in Tripoli and Zintan.   It looked as if from the first counts in Cirenaica, even though the numbers weren’t official, the Tahaluf had won a close victory as well.

Fezzan’s  numbers are still missing due to the considerable security issues but some of Jibril’s most loyal allies are from the Tabù tribe, together with those of the Zintan.  So one could reasonably assume that there will be further good news there for the Alliance. The Libyan journalist Arwa an-Ni’ash, believes that what brought the Alliance to victory was its cohesion, its ability to unify more than 40 movements, groups and parties under a single name, while the religious parties fragemented into 7 rival groups.  Moreover Jibril’s leadership of the Foreign Affairs ministry in the first transition government added to his supporters as he represents a safe bet for Libya’s middle classes.  Having had a past amongst the reformists under Sayf al-Islam, Gheddafi’s son, now held in Zintan, Jibril was also able to catalyse the vote of the nostalgics in the central districts, as well as the moderate religious of the Cirenaica.  In fact, during an interview with me on the day that he founded his new political movement, Jibril was extremely careful to underline the spiritual and Islamic roots of the Alliance.

The fact is it’s too early to be calling victory and any analysis made now risks being undermined by the final election results.

In an interview made today in Tripoli, Muhammad Sawan, the leader of the Justice and Construction party, inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood, declared, “ we have obtained the majority of seats, despite the Alliance having won the listed seats”.  According to the Muslim Brothers, what emerges from the counting of the votes for the 120 individual seats amounts to, “the absolute lack of the Alliance candidates”, to the huge advantage of the Islamic candidates.  “We have the majority of votes in Maglis”, said Sawan.

He added in reply to Jibril’s appeal for a government of national unity; “ We are willing to collaborate with all parties.  Unfortunately the Alliance is the Party with which we have the least in common.”  With arms scattered all over the country, oil resources that are even more important since Iran won its victory over Iraq, and a vital geo-strategic role, Libya is about to commence on an extremely difficult phase.