Policy Dossier on the Western Balkan Route

Abstract

This policy document examines the evolving dynamics of the Western Balkan route through the lens of statistical measurement gaps, secondary movements and the digital transformation of migrant smuggling. While recent Frontex data indicate a significant decrease in detected irregular border crossings at EU external borders, national figures from Slovenia suggest a parallel increase in unauthorised entries along the Croatian-Slovenian segment. This apparent contradiction highlights a key methodological issue: detection statistics capture recorded events, but do not necessarily reflect hidden flows, undetected crossings or adaptive route displacement. Particular attention is given to the sharp rise in Sudanese nationals recorded in Slovenia, which may indicate inter-route compensation and the diversification of smuggling logistics through hybrid air-land models. The document also explores the
role of digital platforms, messaging applications, geolocation tools and informal payment systems as enabling infrastructures for smuggling networks, while stressing that their use does not automatically constitute evidence of criminal conduct. The proposed response is a proportionate pre-investigative triage model based on scenario awareness, lawful data minimisation, multi-sensor indicators, publicprivate cooperation and victim-centred referrals. The overall aim is to support competent authorities in distinguishing analytical indicators from evidentiary findings, while strengthening early warning capacity, protection safeguards and policy coordination.