Crime Prevention and Predictive Analysis

The Italian Case

Crime Prevention and Predictive Analysis

Abstract

The growing complexity of intelligence analysis, marked by high volumes of data and inherent uncertainty, has driven the integration of technology and statistics into crime prevention efforts. This article examines the evolution of predictive policing, with a specific focus on the Italian context and the Delia® software. Developed in Milan in 2007, Delia® combines statistical modeling, behavioral analysis, and geospatial data to forecast serial crimes. Unlike other systems, it requires human oversight for decision-making, thus balancing algorithmic precision with analyst discretion. The software has demonstrated measurable success, including a significant drop in robbery rates and improved case resolution in Milan. External evaluations, such as those conducted by economist Mastrobuoni, confirm Delia®’s effectiveness and highlight its cost-efficiency and potential to influence criminal behavior patterns. Despite these strengths, concerns remain regarding data integrity, false positives, and limited applicability to certain crime types. The article concludes by stressing the importance of a clear legal and ethical framework to guide the use of predictive technologies in law enforcement.

October, 15 2020.
Security, Defence & Migration

Author

Virginia Cinelli

Executive Assistant
Agenfor International Foundation

Virginia Cinelli is Executive Assistant at Agenfor International. She has a BA in International Relations and Political Science from LUISS Guido Carli University (Italy), and an MA in Terrorism and International Security from King’s College London University (UK). She has also studied Intelligence and National Security Studies at the University of Florence (Italy), gaining a grant for the best paper of the course. Moreover, she has a background on communication and external relations. Her areas of interest are: terrorism and radicalisation, especially the phenomenon of prison radicalisation, as well as crime prevention and technology & security.